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実質為替レートと通貨体制 : 1972年沖縄返還からの示唆

Listed author(s):
  • 加納, 和子
  • 加納, 隆

本稿は,異なる通過体制が個別小売商品レベルの実質為替レートに対して与える効果を識別・推定する上で,1972年5月15日の沖縄本土返還前後に琉球・沖縄が経験した3つの通貨体制―米ドル固定相場制,米ドル変動相場制,および日本円共通通貨制―が理想的かつ強力な自然実験環境を提供することを,第2次世界対戦後の琉球・沖縄の経済史を概観することで議論する.この自然実験の実装のため,本稿は沖縄本土返還前後に沖縄と日本本土において実施された小売物価統計調査に着目する.食料品41銘柄に基づいた本稿の計量分析から,米ドル変動相場制は統計的にも経済的にも個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整に対し優位な阻害効果を持つこと,また個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整を促進するきょうつうつうかこうかの仮設は,経済的には優位ではないことが観察される.本稿の自然実験からの結論は,名目為替レート変動の国内小売価格への不完全なパス・スルーを示唆する開放経済ニューケインジアンモデルの実証的妥当性を支持している.

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File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/28772/1/070_hiasDP-E-52.pdf
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Paper provided by Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion paper series with number HIAS-E-52.

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Length: 34p
Date of creation: Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-52
Note: Real Exchange Rates and Currency Regimes: Implications from 1972 Okinawa Reversion
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