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実質為替レートと通貨体制 : 1972年沖縄返還からの示唆


  • 加納, 和子
  • 加納, 隆


In this paper we argue that the historical event of the reversion of Okinawa to the Japanese sovereignty in May 1972 can be utilized as a relevant natural experiment for estimating effects of different currency regimes on product-level real exchange rate adjustments. Before and after the reversion Okinawa experienced three different currency regimes: fixed exchange rate, flexible exchange rate, and common currency regimes. Our monthly sample of retail prices of a variety of individual products sold in retail stores in Okinawa and mainland Japan around the reversion finds that the flexible exchange rate regime deteriorated product-level real exchange rate adjustments in a statistically and economically way, while the common currency regime had no clear impact on them. The results of this paper, hence, support new Keynesian models equipped with sticky local currency pricing that predict incomplete pass-through from nominal exchange rates into domestic retail prices., 本稿は,異なる通貨体制が個別小売商品レベルの実質為替レートに対して与える効果を識別・推定する上で,1972年5月15日の沖縄本士返還前後に流球・沖縄が経験した3つの通貨体制―米ドル固定相場制,米ドル変動相場制,および日本円共通通貨制―が理想的かつ強力な自然実験環境を提供することを,第2次世界大戦後の流球・沖縄の経済史を概観することで議論する.この自然実験の実装のため,本稿は沖縄本士返還前後に沖縄と日本本士において実施された小売物価統計調査に着目する.食料品41銘柄に埜づいた本稿の計量分析から,米ドル変動相場制は統計的にも経済的にも個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整に対し有意な阻害効果を持つこと,また個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整を促進する共通通貨効果の仮説は,経済的には有意ではないことが観察される.本稿の自然実験からの結論は,名目為替レート変動の国内小売価格への不完全なパススルーを示唆する開放経済ニューケインジアンモデルの実証的妥当性を支持している.

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  • 加納, 和子 & 加納, 隆, 2017. "実質為替レートと通貨体制 : 1972年沖縄返還からの示唆," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-52, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-52
    Note: August 2017 Revised in December 2017, Real Exchange Rates and Currency Regimes: Implications from 1972 Okinawa Reversion

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    実質為替レート; 通貨体制; 沖縄本土返還; 小売物価統計調査; 自然実験;

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