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Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan : Analysis Using Narrative Sign Restrictions

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  • FUJITA, Shumpei
  • IIBOSHI, Hirokuni
  • SHINTANI, Mototsugu

Abstract

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in Japan, focusing in particular on the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) implemented during Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure. To identify UMP shocks, we impose narrative sign restrictions on structural shocks and on historical decompositions, exploiting three major policy episodes that generated significant surprises in financial markets. Our results indicate that expansionary UMP shocks increase both output and the inflation rate. The exchange rates, stock prices, and bank lending also respond to the UMP shock in a manner consistent with standard macroeconomic theory. Furthermore, narrative sign restrictions resolve some puzzling responses observed with Cholesky decomposition and tighten the wide credible intervals typical of standard sign restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • FUJITA, Shumpei & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & SHINTANI, Mototsugu, 2026. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan : Analysis Using Narrative Sign Restrictions," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-156, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kaori Ochi, 2026. "Understanding Post-Pandemic Inflation in Japan and the U.S.: A Narrative Sign Restriction Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 26-E-4, Bank of Japan.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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