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東京都における地域危険度ランキングの変化が地価の相対水準に及ぼす非対称的な影響について : 市場データによるプロスペクト理論の検証


  • 顧, 濤
  • 中川, 雅之
  • 齊藤, 誠
  • 山鹿, 久木


本実証研究では、東京都において2000 年代の都市再開発が進行した結果、地域危険度に直接影響を与える周辺環境が著しく改善して、地域別の地域危険度ランキングが大きく入れ替わったことを活用して、地域危険度ランキングの変化が地価の相対水準( 各時点の平均地価からの乖離率) に及ぼす効果について計測している。主要な結論としては、( 1) 相対的に安全な地域では、地域危険度ランキングが低下して相対地価が上昇する変化率の方が、地域危険度ランキングが上昇して相対地価が下落する変化率よりも大きい、( 2) 相対的に危険な地域では、地域危険度ランキングが上昇して相対地価が大きく下落する一方、地域危険度ランキングの低下については相対地価がほとんど上昇しない。本稿では、地域危険度ランキングの変化が相対地価に及ぼす非対称的な影響について、プロスペクト理論に沿って、前者の結果をゼロリスク指向として、後者の結果を現状維持バイアスとして解釈するとともに、その政策インプリケーションを考察している。, In this paper, we investigate the asymmetry in effects of changes in regional risk rankings on relative land prices by exploiting the fact that the urban redevelopment proceeding during the 2000s changed dramatically regional risk rankings in the Tokyo metropolitan area. We find that in previously safe areas, a decrease in risk rankings (being even safer) has significantly positive impacts on relative land prices, while in previously dangerous areas, an increase in risk rankings (being even riskier) has substantially negative effects on them. These findings may be interpreted according to some implications of prospect theory; the former as a preference for zero risk and the latter as status-quo effects.

Suggested Citation

  • 顧, 濤 & 中川, 雅之 & 齊藤, 誠 & 山鹿, 久木, 2010. "東京都における地域危険度ランキングの変化が地価の相対水準に及ぼす非対称的な影響について : 市場データによるプロスペクト理論の検証," Discussion Papers 2010-13, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2010-13
    Note: On asymmetric effects of changes in regional risk rankings on relative land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area : A test of prospect theory using market equilibrium prices

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    prospect theory; status quo effects; preference for zero risk; land pricing; earthquake risks;

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets


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