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  • 川瀬, 晃弘


本論文の目的は、日本の出生率の決定要因をJGSSの個票データを用いた実証分析により明らかにすることにある。JGSSのデータからは、女性が出産した子どもの数のデータとともに兄弟姉妹の数や15歳時に居住していた都道府県名などの情報を入手できる。先行研究では女性の学歴などが出生率に与える影響が大きいことが示唆されているが、本研究ではこれらに加えて、兄弟姉妹の数といった家庭環境や若年期に居住していた地域環境などが女性の出生率に影響を与えるか否かを検証する。分析の結果、通常の回帰分析においてはきょうだい数や15歳時の出生率は女性の子ども数に対して正の影響を与えている様子が伺えたが、個人の属性をコントロールすると結果は不安定なものとなってしまった。そこで、分位回帰(Quantile regression)を行った結果、相対的に子ども数が多い女性についてはこれらの変数が有意に正の影響を与えていることが明らかになった。

Suggested Citation

  • 川瀬, 晃弘, 2012. "出生率の決定要因に関する実証分析," CIS Discussion paper series 536, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:536

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    Fertility; Family background; Regional culture;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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