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Listed author(s):
  • 周, 燕飛
  • 鈴木, 亘
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    本稿は、近年の生活保護率の上昇について、時系列データによる要因分解を試みた。具体的には、1960年4月から2011年3月までの長期時系列データを用いてStructural VARを推定し、Blanchard=Quah分解法によって、一時的要因(temporary Shock)と、恒常的要因(permanent shock)への分解を試みた。その結果、1992年4月以降の生活保護率上昇はそれ以前の情報では説明できないほど上方に乖離しており、その乖離の大部分を恒常的要因が説明することが分かった。特に、2008年9月に起きたリーマン・ショック以降の生活保護率急増は、一般に信じられている景気変動の一時的要因ではなく、そのほとんどを恒常的要因が説明する。その恒常的要因は何によってもたらされているのか、それを特定化することは難しいが、2009年3月以降に次々と出された厚生労働省の通達によって、生活保護受給の基準が、特に稼働能力層において実質的に緩和されたという「制度変更要因」が、大きく影響しているものと思われる。

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    Paper provided by Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CIS Discussion paper series with number 525.

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    Length: 16p
    Date of creation: Sep 2011
    Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:525
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