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Economic Theory and the Supply of Oil


  • Banks, Ferdinand

    () (Department of Economics)


This paper is concerned with four things. First, establishing the importance of the reserve-production ratio, and its significance relative to the 'life' of the oil reserves. Next, providing a simple derivation and discussion of Hotelling's theorem, while claiming its inadequacy for discussing physical as compared to financial assets. I then consider the short term pricing of oil presenting a simplified exposition of the 'convenience yield', and the part it plays in the term structure of oil prices. Finally, I take a look at a recent argument which claims that in reality there will not be an increased dependence of Middle East oil in the near or distant future. There is also a short conclusion in which some forecasts of the demand for oil in the years 2000 and 2010 are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Banks, Ferdinand, 1998. "Economic Theory and the Supply of Oil," Working Paper Series 1997:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:1997_022

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Schaling, Eric & Hoeberichts, Marco, 1998. "Central bank independence: A sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-88, February.
    3. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Unemployment, Labour-Market Reform and Monetary Union," Seminar Papers 639, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    4. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    5. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    7. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Monetary Union and Precautionary Labour-Market Reform," Seminar Papers 659, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    8. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    9. Anne C. Sibert & Alan Sutherland, "undated". "Monetary Regimes and Labour Market Reform," Discussion Papers 97/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1998. "'Actual' versus 'virtual' employment in Europe Is Spain different?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 123-153, January.
    11. Berthold, Norbert & Fehn, Rainer, 1998. "Does EMU Promote Labor-Market Reforms?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 509-536.
    12. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Central bank independence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment:: Theory and some evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1395-1434, June.
    13. Calmfors, L., 1998. "Unemployment, Labour-Market Reform and Monetary Union," Papers 639, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    14. Bratsiotis, George & Martin, Christopher, 1999. " Stabilisation, Policy Targets and Unemployment in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 241-256, June.
    15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    More about this item


    Reserve-produduction ratio; hotelling; convenience yield; oil reserves;

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices


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