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Economic Theory and the Supply of Oil

  • Banks, Ferdinand

    ()

    (Department of Economics)

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    This paper is concerned with four things. First, establishing the importance of the reserve-production ratio, and its significance relative to the 'life' of the oil reserves. Next, providing a simple derivation and discussion of Hotelling's theorem, while claiming its inadequacy for discussing physical as compared to financial assets. I then consider the short term pricing of oil presenting a simplified exposition of the 'convenience yield', and the part it plays in the term structure of oil prices. Finally, I take a look at a recent argument which claims that in reality there will not be an increased dependence of Middle East oil in the near or distant future. There is also a short conclusion in which some forecasts of the demand for oil in the years 2000 and 2010 are given.

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    Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 1997:22.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: 15 Aug 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:1997_022
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
    Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
    Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
    Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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