IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/umnees/0806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk and Rationality - Effects of contextual risk and cognitive dissonance on (sexual) incentives

Author

Listed:
  • Mannberg, Andréa

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

The thesis consists of an introductory part and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] theoretically analyzes how the level and uncertainty of future prospects affect incentives to abstain from sexual risk taking in the presence of HIV. The results suggest that, for individuals with limited access to HIV treatment, uncertainty of future health may be an important factor driving unsafe sex practices and support the empirical finding of a weak link between sexual behavior, HIV prevalence, and HIV knowledge in poor countries; therefore suggesting that AIDS policy needs to be calibrated in order to fit within different social contexts. Paper [II] empirically tests the hypothesis derived in paper [I] on young adults in Cape Town, South Africa. In order to adequately measure sexual risk taking we combine a wide range of variables measuring risky sexual behavior such that the maximum information possible is extracted from, and adequate weights are attached to, each measure. This approach differs from studies that commonly use individual measures or arbitrary aggregations. The findings indicate that expected income and health and future uncertainty are significant determinants of current patterns of sexual risk taking. However, the empirical results only provide limited support to a link between expected health and sexual risk taking. Paper [III] theoretically analyzes effects of affect and defensive denial on incentives to engage in sexual risk taking related to HIV. The theoretical approach incorporates ideas from psychology on decision-making processes and risk evaluation, and ideas from economics on utility maximization. The results of the theoretical analysis suggest that the effect of rationalization of personal risk depends on the risk of being HIV positive. Although rationalization causes excessive risk taking behavior for individuals with a relatively low lifetime risk, it may prevent fatalism among individuals whose lifetime risk of HIV is perceived as overwhelming. Paper [IV] theoretically analyzes the role of identity conflict for the evolution of female labor supply over time. The results suggest the fear of becoming an outsider in society may have prevented a complete transition of women from housewives to breadwinners. In addition, our analysis shows that not recognizing that the weights attached to different social identities are endogenous may imply that the long-run effects on labor supply of a higher wage may be underestimated. Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Health risk, Uncertainty, Risk aversion, Self-Control, Time-inconsiste.

Suggested Citation

  • Mannberg, Andréa, 2010. "Risk and Rationality - Effects of contextual risk and cognitive dissonance on (sexual) incentives," Umeå Economic Studies 806, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.umu.se/DownloadAsset.action?contentId=131222&languageId=3&assetKey=ues806
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Health risk; Uncertainty; Risk aversion; Self-Control; Time-inconsistency; Cognitive dissonance; Regret; Norms; Social identity;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Skog). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inumuse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.