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The Efficacy and Cost of Regime Shifts in Inflation Policies: Evidence from New Zealand and Sweden

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  • Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • de Luna, Xavier

    (University College)

Abstract

In this paper a comparative study of the regime shift in inflation policies in New Zealand and Sweden is performed. We use a non-parametric regression method to decompose the inflation time series into three components of variation: a long-term trend, a medium-term (cyclical and transient variations) trend and a short-term shocks component. This allows us to study the transition process from the high inflation characterizing the end of the seventies and the eighties to the low inflation observed during the nineties. We find that in New Zealand, although it is initially delayed, the decrease in inflation happens at a faster pace than in Sweden. This may indicate that reforms were more efficient in New Zealand. We also show a clear link between the rising unemployment and the transition from high to low inflation. Furthermore, while in New Zealand a downward adjustment of the unemployment rate happens directly after the transition period, in Sweden there seems to be persistence in high unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & de Luna, Xavier, 1998. "The Efficacy and Cost of Regime Shifts in Inflation Policies: Evidence from New Zealand and Sweden," Umeå Economic Studies 475, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    5. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    6. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    7. Agell, Jonas & Calmfors, Lars & Jonsson, Gunnar, 1996. "Fiscal policy when monetary policy is tied to the mast," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1413-1440, August.
    8. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    2. Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Jörgen Hellström & Mats Landström, 2013. "Why Do Politicians Implement Central Bank Independence Reforms?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 427-438, December.
    3. Chatterjee, Srikanta & Dalziel, Paul & Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & Podder, Nripesh, 2008. "Income Inequality and Transformation of the Welfare State: A Comparative Study of the Reforms in New Zealand and Sweden," HUI Working Papers 20, HUI Research.
    4. Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & de Luna, Xavier, 2002. "Central Bank Independence and Price Stability: Evidence from 23 OECD-countries," Umeå Economic Studies 589, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 12 Jun 2003.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation regimes; unemployement; non-parametric regression; components of variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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