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The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Sentencing Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Dominguez, Patricio

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica, Chile)

  • Lazcano, Leopoldo

    (Swedish Institute for Social Research)

Abstract

Pretrial detention accounts for an important share of the prison population around the globe. We examine its impact on sentencing outcomes in Chile’s criminal justice system, where plea bargaining is a limited prosecution tool. We find that pretrial detention increases conviction probability from 53 to 76 percent. We then assess how a reform facilitating prosecution for a specific set of crimes (robberies) alters this effect. We observe a substantial increase in the impact of pretrial detention on conviction for robbery-related crimes and no relevant changes for others. These findings highlight pretrial detention’s role in shaping criminal justice outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominguez, Patricio & Lazcano, Leopoldo, 2025. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Sentencing Outcomes," SOFI Working Papers in Labour Economics 8/2025, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sofile:2025_008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pretrial detention; sentencing outcomes; plea bargaining; judge-IV design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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