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From Manufacturing Productivity to National Wages: The Main-Course Variable and Norwegian Wage Formation, 1900–2025

Author

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  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

We analyse the role of the wage scope defined by the manufacturing sector in the history of wage coordination in Norway. Using econometric methods, we document a long-term empirical equation that link the national annual wage to the manufacturing-sector wage scope, defined as the value of labour productivity, and which is known as the ’main-course’. Tests of exogeneity support the interpretation of the main-course as a long-run driver of the national annul wage. Contributing to the literature on the wage–productivity nexus, we show that the productivity component of the main-course has been the dominant determinant of the secular growth in the purchasing power of annual wages. Changes in the relative price of manufacturing value added and consumer goods have played a subsidiary role, together with unemployment and reductions in annual working time. Identified structural breaks cluster in the 1920s and 1930s, reflecting economic crises and institutional change, while the estimated relationship remains consistent with Norway’s contemporary pattern wage bargaining system.

Suggested Citation

  • Nymoen, Ragnar, 2026. "From Manufacturing Productivity to National Wages: The Main-Course Variable and Norwegian Wage Formation, 1900–2025," Memorandum 4/2026, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2026_004
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    File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/publications/memoranda/pdf-files/2026/memo-04-2026.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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