IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/hastef/0442.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting Survival in cost-effectiveness analyses based on clinical trials

Author

Listed:
  • Gerdtham, Ulf-G

    () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Zethraeus, Niklas

    () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper deals with the question how to model health effects after the cessation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Using clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients we illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of a RCT can be predicted based on parametric survival models. In the analysis we compare the predicted survival and the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different survival models with the actual survival/ICER. Our main finding is that the results are highly sensitive to the choice of survival model and that extensive sensitivity analysis in the CE analysis is required. We also show that adding the true survival after the end of the clinical study will underestimate the true variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerdtham, Ulf-G & Zethraeus, Niklas, 2001. "Predicting Survival in cost-effectiveness analyses based on clinical trials," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0442, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0442
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/papers/hastef0442.figur.pdf
    File Function: figures
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/papers/hastef0442.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost-effectiveness analysis; modelling; confidence intervals;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/erhhsse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.