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Arbetslöshetsförsäkringen och arbetslösheten(2). Reformeffekt vid 1993 års sänkning av ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen?


  • Johansson, Sten

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

  • Selén, Jan

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)


Ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen har förändrats flera gånger under 1990-talet. 1996 års sänkning från 80 till 75 procent ledde till en tioprocentig ökning av övergångarna till arbete enligt det statliga Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU). I vår reanalys av IFAU-studien kom vi fram till att reformeffekten var en statistisk artefakt som inte kan tolkas kausalt. 1993 års sänkning av ersättningsgraden från 90 till 80 procent har tidigare studerats av Harkman. När vi här analyserar denna dubbelt så stora sänkning av ersättningsgraden med likartad metod, ansats och med variabelspecifikationer som i IFAU-studien får vi liksom Harkman ingen signifikant reformeffekt enligt konventionella kriterier. Däremot får vi i detta material tydliga belägg för samma problematiska statistiska fenomen som omöjliggör kausal tolkning i reanalysen av IFAU-studien. Det gäller i särskild grad den s k antecipatoriska effekten. Ett sidoresultat är stora skillnader i arbetsmarknadsbeteende mellan kvinnor och män som vi inte kunnat förklara helt.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Sten & Selén, Jan, 2001. "Arbetslöshetsförsäkringen och arbetslösheten(2). Reformeffekt vid 1993 års sänkning av ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen?," Working Paper Series 170, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0170

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    More about this item


    Arbetslöshetsförsäkring; reformeffekt;

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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