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Direkta undanträngningseffekter av arbetsmarknadspolitiska åtgärder

Author

Listed:
  • Hansen, Sten

    (Ministry of Finance)

  • Persson, Joakim

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

Dahlberg och Forslunds (1999, 2000) studie av undanträngningseffekter fokuserar på resultat från det andra steget i den GMM-metod som utvecklats av Arellano och Bond (1991). Tidigare Monte Carlo simuleringar samt simuleringen för det aktuella datamaterialet visar dock att de skattade standardfelen från det andra stegets skattningsmetod underskattar de faktiska standardfelen. Det innebär att punktskattningar av undanträngningseffekter förefaller vara mer precist skattade än vad de faktiskt är. Vår simulering visar vidare att det första stegets skattade standardfel för den skattade undanträngningseffekten är i paritet med de faktiska standardfelen. Vi finner att det första stegets skattade 95-procentiga konfidensintervall för undanträngningseffekten för Beredskapsarbete är mellan minus 22 och plus 127 procent. Punktskattningen är inte statistiskt skild från noll på 10 procents signifikansnivå. Detta resultat skiljer sig kvalitativt från slutsatsen i DF. För Övriga subventionerade anställningar är det skattade 95-procentiga konfidensintervallet för undanträngningseffekten mellan 32 och 92 procent.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Sten & Persson, Joakim, 2001. "Direkta undanträngningseffekter av arbetsmarknadspolitiska åtgärder," Working Paper Series 168, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    arbetsmarknadspolitiska åtgärder; GMM; paneldata; små stickprov; direkta undanträngningseffekter;

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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