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Global Income Inequality by 2050: Convergence, Redistribution, and Climate Change

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Listed:
  • Philipp Bothe

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Lucas Chancel

    (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Amory Gethin

    (BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale)

  • Cornelia Mohren

    (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

Abstract

This article investigates how national income convergence, government redistribution, and climate change will shape the global distribution of income until 2050. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 10% to 12% under "business-as-usual", while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, modest national-level redistribution policies can raise the global bottom 50% share to up to 19%. Policies involving redistribution of pre-tax income are particularly effective in reducing global inequality. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all convergence effects since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Bothe & Lucas Chancel & Amory Gethin & Cornelia Mohren, 2025. "Global Income Inequality by 2050: Convergence, Redistribution, and Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-05500216, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-05500216
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05500216v1
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