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Expectations and Full Employment: Hansen, Samuelson and Lange

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  • Michaël Assous

    (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2)

  • Olivier Bruno

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Vincent Carret

    (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

Abstract

[GREDEG Working Paper 2020-17] From the outset, expectations were a central part of the first macrodynamic models and early growth theories. In the 1940s, a third line of research emerged which questioned the capacity of an economy to reach full-employment equilibrium. Starting with Alvin Hansen (1938) and culminating with Oskar Lange (1944), the crux of the debate evolved from the existence of full employment equilibrium to analysis of its stability, suggesting an increased role for expectations and finally challenging the economic system's global stability. The present paper traces those debates through the contributions of Hansen, Paul Samuelson and Lange. Using archives materials, we show that while Samuelson's analysis of instability remained implicit, his correspondence reveals that he encouraged Oskar Lange to examine it more carefully. Lange's results are presented in his 1944 Cowles Commission Monograph. We point out that his contribution cannot be understood in isolation either from his exchanges with Samuelson or the way that Keynesian ideas were being interpreted in the United States. The paper finally questions Samuelson's view on instability and expectations

Suggested Citation

  • Michaël Assous & Olivier Bruno & Vincent Carret & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2020. "Expectations and Full Employment: Hansen, Samuelson and Lange," Working Papers halshs-02874697, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02874697
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michaël Assous & Muriel Dal Pont Legrand, 2020. "Growth Without Expectations: The Original Sin of Neoclassical Growth Models," Springer Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Arie Arnon & Warren Young & Karine van der Beek (ed.), Expectations, pages 121-130, Springer.
    2. Backhouse, Roger E., 2017. "Founder of Modern Economics: Paul A. Samuelson: Volume 1: Becoming Samuelson, 1915-1948," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190664091.
    3. Michaël Assous & Muriel Dal Pont Legrand & Sonia Manseri, 2020. "Samuelson's Neoclassical Synthesis in the Context of Growth Economics, 1956-1967," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-12, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    4. Daniele Besomi, 2003. "Harrod, Hansen, and Samuelson on the Multiplier-Acceleration Model: A Further Note," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 305-322, Summer.
    5. Jonung,Lars (ed.), 2006. "The Stockholm School of Economics Revisited," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521026161.
    6. Roger E. Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2016. "Theories of stagnation in historical perspective," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 147-159, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lange; wages dynamics; full-employment; Samuelson; (in-)stability; expectations; Hansen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B2 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium

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