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L'indépendance réelle de la banque centrale et le biais inflationniste : une validation empirique

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  • Abdelkader Aguir

    () (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

Abstract

Le corpus théorique qui propose la solution de la Banque Centrale indépendante, résulte des travaux menés dès le début des années soixante-dix autour d'une problématique toujours actuelle en théorie monétaire, celle de l'incohérence temporelle. Ce problème présente l'une des principales sources du biais inflationniste .La délégation de la politique monétaire à une Banque Centrale indépendante offre la garantie de la stabilité des prix et par conséquent elle augmente sa crédibilité. L'objectif primordial de ce travail est de valider un lien entre l'indépendance de la banque centrale et l'inflation. L'inspection visuelle de ce lien a confirmé le signe de la corrélation toutefois elle manque de robustesse dans les pays développés et en développement. Une modélisation économétrique de la relation entre l'inflation, l'indépendance de la Banque Centrale et des variables de performance économique permettra à répondre d'une manière patente à la problématique que si l'inflation est d'origine monétaire : pour réduire le biais inflationniste, la condition de l'indépendance de la Banque Centrale s'avère une condition nécessaire et/ou suffisante. En adoptant une mesure réelle de l'indépendance de la Banque Centrale pour 54 pays en développement classés par leur niveau de revenu pour la période 1991-2011, la régression de panel a donné les résultats attendus. Le taux de rotation du gouverneur (TOR) ne devient significatif que dans les pays qui connaissent des taux d'inflation élevé. Ce résultat prouve que la condition de l'indépendance de la banque centrale ne peut être que nécessaire. L'introduction des variables de performance économiques prouve que l'inflation est d'origine monétaire. La prise en compte d'autres variables de contrôle , qui indiquent l'impact de régime des taux de change sur l'inflation, montre que la banque centrale doit mettre plus d'effort en matière de coordination entre la politique monétaire et la politique de taux de change. Ce résultat confirme que la condition de l'indépendance de la Banque Centrale n'est pas suffisante

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  • Abdelkader Aguir, 2013. "L'indépendance réelle de la banque centrale et le biais inflationniste : une validation empirique," Working Papers halshs-00800059, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00800059 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00800059
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    Keywords

    Biais inflationniste; incohérence temporelle; indépendance réelle; crédibilité; panel;

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