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Modèles Non Linéaires et Prévisions


  • Gilbert Colletaz

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Hurlin

    () (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


Ce rapport propose une synthèse de la littérature sur l'apport des modèles non linéaires en matière de prévision des variables économiques et financières. Il comporte trois parties. La première passe en revue les principales modélisations économétriques non linéaires. La seconde partie est consacrée à la construction des prévisions ponctuelles, des prévisions par intervalle de confiance et des densités de prévisions issues des modèles non linéaires. La troisième partie décrit les principales méthodes de validation de ces différentes formes de prévisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Modèles Non Linéaires et Prévisions," Working Papers halshs-00156692, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00156692
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    Cited by:

    1. EL BOUHADI, Hamid & OUAHID, Driss, 2014. "Datation des changements structurels au sein d’une chronique : le cas des séries macroéconomiques marocaines
      [Dating structural changes in time series : the case of the Moroccan macroeconomic serie
      ," MPRA Paper 68168, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Prévisions; Modèles non linéaires;


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