Statistical Truth Under Scrutiny[La Vérité Statistique À L’Épreuve]

Executive Summary The Institute for Social and Media Studies (SMS Institute) has published a critical study examining the latest report of Morocco's High Commission for Planning (HCP) on the labour market during the second quarter of 2026. The Institute acknowledges that the new methodology adopted under the 2026 National Employment and Labour Force Survey (EMO 2026) represents a significant methodological and scientific improvement, as it brings Morocco's labour-market measurement more closely into line with International Labour Organization (ILO) standards. However, the study argues that communicating the situation primarily through the strict unemployment rate of 9.5% risks providing an incomplete picture of the actual degree of labour underutilization. A methodological improvement accompanied by a communication risk According to the analysis conducted by Dr. Younes BENNANE, Principal Researcher at the Institute, the transition to EMO 2026 enhances the statistical precision of labour-market measurement. Nevertheless, the narrower definition of strict unemployment results in a statistical reclassification of part of the economically active population rather than necessarily reflecting a corresponding reduction in the underlying employment deficit. The study therefore distinguishes between statistical unemployment and the broader phenomenon of labour underutilization. The gap between the official indicator and the social reality The reality of Morocco's labour market cannot be reduced to the 1.121 million people classified as strictly unemployed. When the potential labour force (711,000 people) and time-related underemployment (527,000 people) are taken into account, the total volume of underutilized human resources reaches approximately 2.36 million people. Consequently, the composite measure of labour underutilization, LU4, reaches 18.9%, almost twice the strict unemployment rate. Greater vulnerabilities among young people, women and graduates The analysis highlights particularly significant vulnerabilities among several population groups: Young people aged 15–24: More than four in ten young people (41.7%) experience some form of labour underutilization, despite a strict unemployment rate of 27.2%. Women: The principal challenge remains their very low economic participation, at only 18.1%, while their composite labour underutilization rate reaches 26.7%. Higher-education graduates: Their strict unemployment rate stands at 16.7%, highlighting the continuing challenge of matching educational qualifications with labour-market opportunities. Strategic recommendations The SMS Institute proposes three main policy directions: Promote transparent statistical communication: Public communication should systematically present the strict unemployment rate (LU1 = 9.5%) alongside the broader composite labour-underutilization indicator (LU4 = 18.9%). Prioritize the quality of employment: The effectiveness of employment policies should be assessed not only through the number of jobs created, but also through real wages, employment stability, working conditions and social protection. Develop targeted and regionalized indicators: Specific indicators should be developed to measure the economic integration of young people and women, allowing employment policies to be better adapted to regional disparities and local labour-market conditions. Conclusion The study concludes that the methodological modernization introduced by EMO 2026 constitutes a significant improvement in the measurement of Morocco's labour market. However, improved measurement should not lead to an overly favourable representation of labour-market conditions. "The new methodology improves the measurement of the labour market, but it must not beautify the image of the market at the expense of its reality. The challenge is to move from an economy that counts jobs to an economy that evaluates job quality and social inclusion."