Modeling Price-Quality Competition in the Thai International Express Delivery Market

What drives end-users' loyalty to a specific logistics provider, rather than to the market as a whole, remains underexplored in competitive, multi-operator settings such as the Bangkok international express parcel segment. This paper re-examines a survey dataset of 391 Bangkok shippers (Saisanit & Nimtrakool, 2023) using a multinomial logistic regression framework in which revealed provider choice -across DHL (reference), FedEx, ThailandPost, UPS, and FastShip -serves as the dependent variable. Variable selection via bidirectional AIC-based stepwise minimization over 37 candidates yields a parsimonious seven-variable specification (McFadden pseudo-R² = 0.193; LR χ²(76) = 218.55, p < 0.001). Pairwise likelihood-ratio tests find 8 of 10 provider pairs statistically distinguishable (p < 0.05). The dominant differentiating mechanism is shippers' motivation for provider selection: cargo insurance availability and damage guarantees substantially increase the odds of choosing ThailandPost, FedEx, or UPS over DHL (ORs: 3.1-10.9). Shipment frequency and product type generate provider-specific segmentation patterns, while FastShip is structurally set apart by cost sensitivity and high shipping intensity. These findings contribute to the Thai logistics literature and to the methodological literature on discrete choice modelling in competitive service markets.