L’évolution de l’activité féminine en France : une approche par pseudo-panel

There are twice as many women in the labor market today as there were 30 years ago. But, at the same time, part-time work and unemployment have grown considerably. In total, it is therefore not certain that female activity, if measured by the number of hours worked, will continue to increase, nor that, as a result, the gap between men and women will narrow. The purpose of this document is to take stock of these issues. To do this, we carry out a pseudo-panel analysis on the generations 1935-1970 from the Employment surveys 1982-2002. This allows us to estimate the "average" participation rate of women in a given generation, calculated over their entire careers. We propose several definitions of activity depending on whether or not it includes unemployment and part-time work. The comparison of these different rates from one generation to the next gives us the trend in female activity. The main findings are as follows: The proportion of working women (employed or seeking work) continues to rise. Correlatively, the gap between men and women is narrowing, even for the most recent generations in our study. But if we take into account unemployment and part-time employment, then female employment stagnates: if recent trends continue, the 1965-1970 generations will have the same employment rate (in full-time equivalent) as the 1955-1960 generations. Moreover, the stagnation of activity is a much older phenomenon among low-skilled women than among highly skilled ones. Nevertheless, even when unemployment and part-time employment are taken into account, the gap between men and women continues to narrow, because male activity is declining.