The Correspondance Hebdomadaire-Annuelle de l'Inflation (CHAI) : A Forward-Looking Surveillance Framework for Emerging Market Central Banks

Modern monetary policy relies on forward-looking frameworks that require timely information on inflation dynamics. However, many emerging and developing economies face significant informational constraints, as inflation data are often available only at low frequencies. This paper introduces the Weekly-Annual Inflation Consistency (CHAI) Framework, a methodology that establishes a mathematical link between annual inflation targets and weekly inflation monitoring. The framework derives a target-consistent weekly inflation rate, and a corresponding CHAI Gap, which measures deviations between observed weekly inflation and the path required to achieve the annual inflation objective. By providing a simple, transparent, and real-time surveillance tool, CHAI enables policymakers to detect inflationary and disinflationary pressures at an early stage. The framework complements existing forecasting systems and strengthens the operational implementation of forward-looking monetary policy, particularly in economies characterized by limited statistical frequency and high macroeconomic volatility.