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Fuel Poverty Dynamics in France, 2017-2024: Evidence of a Partial Fuel Poverty Trap following Energy Price Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Corinne Chaton

    (EDF R&D SEQUOIA - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF [E.D.F.] - EDF – Électricité de France, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CREST - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF [E.D.F.] - EDF – Électricité de France)

  • Thierry Kamionka

    (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Mila Marsot

    (ENSAE - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique)

Abstract

This paper analyses fuel poverty dynamics in France over 2017-2024, covering both pre-crisis conditions and the recent energy price shock. Using longitudinal EU-SILC data, we construct a composite measure combining thermal discomfort and financial strain, and distinguish between moderate and severe fuel poverty. We estimate transition probabilities and a mover-stayer model to assess persistence and mobility. The results show that moderate fuel poverty is largely transitory, while severe fuel poverty displays stronger persistence and lower exit rates. The energy crisis increases both entry into fuel poverty and its persistence among vulnerable households. These findings provide evidence of a partial fuel poverty trap, affecting a subset of households facing sustained constraints. Overall, the results highlight the need to combine income support with structural policies improving energy efficiency and reducing exposure to price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Chaton & Thierry Kamionka & Mila Marsot, 2026. "Fuel Poverty Dynamics in France, 2017-2024: Evidence of a Partial Fuel Poverty Trap following Energy Price Shocks," Working Papers hal-05655090, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05655090
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05655090v1
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    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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