What determines the survival of organic farms in Nouvelle-Aquitaine? Evidence from certification exit[Quelle pérennité pour les exploitations biologiques de Nouvelle-Aquitaine ? Une analyse des déterminants des arrêts de certifications AB]

This paper examines the persistence of organic farms in Nouvelle-Aquitaine within a context of crisis marked by a slowdown in conversions and a sharp increase in decertifications since the early 2020s. It aims to assess the magnitude of decertification and to identify its determinants by jointly considering cyclical, structural, and microeconomic factors. The analysis relies on a mixed-methods approach combining a regional database from Agence Bio (nearly 11,000 observations), an original survey of more than 1,000 farms, and qualitative materials (literature review, interviews, and stakeholder exchanges). This framework captures both structural transformations in the sector (demographic changes, competing labels, national and European policies) and recent cyclical pressures (price tensions, product delisting, declining demand), which together shape current decertification dynamics. At the microeconomic level, a binary logit model is used to estimate the probability of remaining in organic farming. The study's originality lies in jointly integrating four dimensions: the irreversibility of production systems (specialization and experience in organic farming), farmers' initial motivations, their perceptions of the sectoral context, and the differentiated role of support schemes at various stages of farm trajectories. The results show that decertification cannot be explained solely by recent shocks or structural trends but emerges from interactions between these factors and farm- and farmer-level characteristics. More strongly committed farms exhibit greater persistence, particularly during periods of crisis. By contrast, motivations driven by economic opportunities and negative perceptions of the national context are associated with a higher likelihood of exit. Public support displays heterogeneous effects depending on its purpose and on farmers' motivations, while location and production orientation reveal differentiated territorial dynamics. These findings underline the need for public policies that are both comprehensive and territorially targeted to address the diversity of situations.