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Mine to Magnet Rare Earth Dynamics

Author

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  • Sandrine Lardic

    (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

Abstract

This article develops a dynamic modelling framework for the NdFeB supply chain by combining a quantile‑dependent QVAR, a generalized variance decomposition, and a frequency‑domain analysis. This approach identifies, across market regimes and time horizons, the mechanisms through which tensions are transmitted and absorbed between oxides, metals, and alloys. The results reveal a strongly asymmetric structure: dysprosium oxide and ferro‑dysprosium exert a dominant and persistent influence over the system, while praseodymium absorbs a disproportionate share of upstream shocks. Neodymium metal and mischmetal respond mainly to short‑term fluctuations, whereas dysprosium metal behaves as a pivot whose role shifts under extreme market conditions. The overall dynamics are driven by low‑frequency components, where structural interdependencies concentrate, and two major breaks (2017–2018, 2021–2022) highlight the system's sensitivity to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. The analysis shows that the NdFeB chain is nonlinear, hierarchical, and multi‑horizon, providing an innovative econometric framework to understand how tensions propagate across critical material markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Lardic, 2025. "Mine to Magnet Rare Earth Dynamics," Working Papers hal-05587610, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05587610
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05587610v1
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