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How Many Indebted Households Worldwide? A Global Estimate of Everyday Household Debt
[Combien y a-t-il de ménages endettés dans le monde ? Estimation mondiale de l'endettement quotidien des ménages]

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Natal

    (IFP - Institut Français de Pondichéry - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UB - Université de Bordeaux, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Isabelle Guérin

    (IFP - Institut Français de Pondichéry - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IRD [Ile-de-France] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

Abstract

Household debt has expanded dramatically worldwide, yet little is known about how many people rely on borrowing simply to meet basic needs. This paper provides the first global estimate of everyday debt. In the absence of harmonised international data, we adopt an indirect estimation strategy based on three complementary proxies: poverty rates, social protection coverage gaps, and observed informal or non-productive borrowing. Across these approaches, estimates converge between one quarter and two fifths of the global population. The debt-based proxy indicates that at least 33.3% of the world's population (i.e., over 2.59 billion people) regularly rely on borrowing to make ends meet. Country case studies (United Kingdom, United States, France, Brazil, and India) demonstrate that official indicators systematically underestimate this phenomenon. We argue that everyday indebtedness is not marginal but structural, reflecting wage stagnation, labour precarity, welfare retrenchment, and the financialisation of social reproduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Natal & Isabelle Guérin, 2026. "How Many Indebted Households Worldwide? A Global Estimate of Everyday Household Debt [Combien y a-t-il de ménages endettés dans le monde ? Estimation mondiale de l'endettement quotidien des ménages]," Working Papers hal-05547460, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05547460
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05547460v1
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