A Multisectoral Input-Output Analysis of the Economic Effects of Embargoes: Modeling Feedbacks and the Boomerang Effect[Analyse input-output multisectorielle des effets économiques des embargos : modélisation des rétroactions et de l’effet boomerang]

We propose a method for analyzing international-trade embargoes that incorporates the economic feedback effects on the initiating country - the so-called ‘boomerang effect' - including both mechanical feedback mechanisms and retaliatory measures. Based on a multisectoral input-output framework, the model simulates several embargo configurations using 2020 OECD inter-industry and international data. The scenarios account for supply and demand flexibility, price adjustments, and third-country cooperation or defection. This approach, illustrated by fictitious scenarios involving France and Russia, allows us to assess the direct and indirect economic effects of embargoes and to derive policy recommendations depending on the scenario: enforcement, abstention, or coordinated diplomatic action.