Do Circular Economy and Renewable Energy Consumption Reduce CO₂ Emissions ? An ARDL Analysis for China

Renewable energy plays a central role in mitigating carbon emissions during the energy transition, particularly in large emerging economies such as China. This study examines the impact of renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions, while accounting for the complementary role of circular economy-related energy-efficiency and resource-efficiency mechanisms. Using annual data for China from 1990 to 2020, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to analyze both long-run and short-run relationships among CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, waste management (CE1), industrial resource-use efficiency (CE2), and economic growth. The empirical results indicate that renewable energy consumption significantly reduces CO₂ emissions in the long run.Circular economy mechanisms further contribute to emissions mitigation by lowering energy demand and improving energy intensity, whereas economic growth increases emissions. These findings highlight the importance of integrating renewable energy expansion with energy-efficient and resource-efficient policies to support China's long-term decarbonization strategy.