Beliefs About EU 2030 Climate Commitments Across Public, Expert, and Policy Audiences

The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. While technical, economic, and political feasibility have been widely analyzed, far less is known about a critical enabling factor: whether key societal actors perceive these targets as credible and achievable. Though often correlated with support, beliefs about a policy's effectiveness reflect a different underlying judgment and call for different elicitation methods. In this study, we elicit probabilistic beliefs about future EU emission reductions from a representative sample of citizens across 12 EU member states and compare them with the expectations of climate policymakers and experts. Our findings reveal that, while policymakers and experts are relatively optimistic, the general public is more skeptical, expecting, on average, a 43% reduction by 2030 compared to the EU's 55% target, and expresses substantially greater uncertainty. Moreover, we identify a notable misalignment: stakeholders systematically overestimate public optimism and confidence. These gaps highlight the importance of improving policy communication, addressing public skepticism, and fostering shared understanding to enhance the perceived credibility and political sustainability of the EU's climate goals.