Pesticide Reduction Plan: Economic, Health and Environmental Impacts: A Theoretical Analysis[Plan de réduction des pesticides : impacts économiques, sanitaire et environnemental : Une analyse théorique]

This study analyzes—using a theoretical industrial-organization model—the impact of a pesticide-reduction plan, inspired by the Ecophyto plan, on economic outcomes arising from competition in the final market (prices, producers' profits) and on the health and environmental risks associated with pesticide use. The model incorporates the dependence of production yields on pesticides and/or alternative natural inputs, as well as the existence of European regulation on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs). The interactions between the MRL level, the plan's features (reduction rate, plan duration, budgetary effort), and producers' responses in terms of the quantities of inputs used (natural inputs, pesticides) are brought to light through a sequential game. The results show that cutting pesticide use induces producers to adopt more natural inputs, whose effectiveness depends on the plan's budget and duration. When these inputs are inexpensive, farm profits rise in the short run before declining, whereas they remain above the status quo if their cost is high. A stronger reduction in pesticides further increases reliance on natural inputs but does not fully offset yield losses, which pushes prices up. Finally, longer-duration plans generate higher profits and higher prices than short plans. These findings underscore the need for precise policy calibration to reconcile environmental objectives with economic viability.