Scenario dynamics of degrowth under capitalist power

Efforts to envision post-growth and degrowth future pathways have multiplied, yet scenario exercises rarely interrogate how political–economic forces shape their plausibility. This article develops a framework for analyzing degrowth futures through the lens of Capital as Power (CasP). It translates CasP's account of accumulation—organized through capitalization, sabotage, and state–capital entanglement—into a causal loop architecture. This approach clarifies how degrowth transformations interact with capitalist power through distinct feedback dynamics. Four scenario dynamics are examined: (1) sabotaged transition, where degrowth initiatives are redirected to sustain accumulation; (2) post-growth accumulation, where reduced aggregate growth remains compatible with scarcity-based profits; (3) contested transformation, where degrowth confronts capital and sparks escalating conflict; and (4) systemic reordering, where confidence in capitalization unravels and capitalist order destabilizes. For degrowth, this analysis highlights that futures should be conceived as power-laden pathways: constraining the routes through which dominant capital increases its relative power, undermining the restrictions imposed on alternatives, and challenging the confidence capitalists have in the continuity of the order they rule. Degrowth futures may therefore be better understood as struggles over the enforcement or destabilization of capitalist power.