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Measuring Coalition Power in a Fragmented Parliament: A Shapley-NOMINATE Analysis of the 2022-2024 French Elections

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  • Zouhair Ait Benhamou

    (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, NU - Normandie Université, FAI - Université Le Havre Normandie - Faculté des Affaires Internationales - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

  • Sylvain Baumann

    (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, FAI - Université Le Havre Normandie - Faculté des Affaires Internationales - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

Abstract

In 2022 and 2024, French parliamentary elections have not yielded a stable winning coalition, successive governments had to rely on ad hoc majorities as a result. We combine the Shapley-Shubik model with fuzzy coalition commitment and a Poole-Rosenthal ranking in order to show that there are unstable coalitions that form among the three main blocs, but: a) ideological distances preclude many potential coalitions, b) the restricted core of feasible winning coalitions inflates the bargaining power of smaller parties and groups and c) Coalescing into a larger caucus does not guarantee a larger Shapley value.

Suggested Citation

  • Zouhair Ait Benhamou & Sylvain Baumann, 2024. "Measuring Coalition Power in a Fragmented Parliament: A Shapley-NOMINATE Analysis of the 2022-2024 French Elections," Working Papers hal-05300251, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05300251
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://normandie-univ.hal.science/hal-05300251v1
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