Beyond order: contingency, recursion, and metastability in economics

This paper explores the ideas of order and equilibrium in economics. Drawing on the philosophical concept of absolute contingency (Meillassoux, 2008; Hui, 2019), this paper shows that equilibrium-based economic approaches encounter three key conceptual issues. First, ontologically, there is no inherent order that must persist. Second, epistemically, there are no guarantees that current conditions will remain the same in the future. Third, pragmatically, individuals act and revise their plans in response to contingent, changing conditions. Economic action may involve optimization under particular arrangements, but very often requires adaptation and learning as these arrangements change. The terms ontology, epistemology, and pragmatics are used here as heuristic tools. These three dimensions are viewed as a triad that, open to contingency, evolves recursively. Instead of viewing economic systems as mechanistic, we suggest seeing them as metastable processes open to transformation. In this perspective, order is not a necessity but merely one possible state. It is also argued that traditional economic models, emphasizing deductive rigor, are limited in external validity and learning potential. Simulation models, such as ABMs, are proposed as valuable complements for examining economic scenarios shaped by absolute contingency.