How Many People Live Near Protected Areas in Developing Countries? Estimates from Gridded Population Data (2000–2020)

Impact evaluations of protected areas routinely define \"local populations\" through spatial proximity, yet the demographic scale implied by these definitions is almost never quantified. We estimate population counts inside protected areas and within 10 km of their boundaries for 75 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2000 and 2020, using the World Database on Protected Areas and globally harmonized gridded population data (GHSL, with WorldPop as robustness check). India is excluded because its national protected areas are not publicly available in the WDPA. Results are decomposed by IUCN management category (strict and non-strict). In 2020, approximately 61 million people (2.5% of their combined population) lived inside protected areas and over 900 million (36.6%) lived inside or within 10 km of their boundaries. These figures are substantially larger than those estimated for 2000, reflecting both PA expansion and demographic growth. Most PA-adjacent populations are located near non-strict protected areas (IUCN categories IV to VI) rather than strict protection regimes (IUCN categories I to III). These population orders of magnitude are relevant for interpreting the scope of PA impact evaluations but do not themselves constitute impact estimates.