Choix d’un régime de change dans les pays en développement : cas des pays de la Communauté Economique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO)

In reviewing the various studies that have examined the choice of the exchange rate regime at the global, African and ECOWAS levels, and based on the methods of measures of original sin and the monetary imbalance proposed by Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner (2004), our study reveals that the ECOWAS countries are totally exposed to the so-called original sin phenomenon. Indeed, with the exception of Liberia, which had a ratio of pure mismatch of 0.95 in 2006, all countries recorded ratios higher than unity during the period 2001-2015. This is proof that they are heavily indebted in foreign currencies that their export earnings can not repay. All things being equal, this situation recommends the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime. However, the positive sign of the global monetary imbalance ratios, the levels of the international reserve ratios on short-term debt, the financing mechanism, the composition of foreign debt per creditor and the degree of integration of financial markets at the level of Community indicate that despite the original sin that affects ECOWAS member countries, the adoption of a flexible exchange rate is possible.