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Modèle markovien de prêt groupé en microfinance

Author

Listed:
  • Philibert Andriamanantena
  • Issouf Abdou

    (Université des Comores)

  • Mamy Raoul Ravelomanana

    (Université d'Antananarivo)

  • Rivo Rakotozafy

    (Université de Fianarantsoa)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a solidarity loan model that best responds to the context of microfinance. Inspired by the model of Osman Khodr and Francine Diener , we use Markov chains based on the recent past to predict the future. A transferable charge q=\phi(1+r) is treated here on a case-by-case basis according to the situations of the members of the group of borrowers. The model therefore makes it possible to provide the microfinance institution with more precise statistical data by stigmatizing borrowers from one state to another. Our model differs from that of Osman Khodr and Francine Diener by adding additional hypotheses that incorporate step by step, in a natural way, all the characteristics of a poor population with a low level of material security and with tolerance in the event of a partial lack of group loan repayment.

Suggested Citation

  • Philibert Andriamanantena & Issouf Abdou & Mamy Raoul Ravelomanana & Rivo Rakotozafy, 2023. "Modèle markovien de prêt groupé en microfinance," Working Papers hal-04177855, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04177855
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04177855
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