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Sticky Expectations and Stock Market Anomalies

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (CFM - Capital Fund Management - Capital Fund Management)

  • Philipp Krueger
  • Augustin Landier

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • David Thesmar

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We propose a theory of one of the most economically significant stock market anomalies, i.e. the "profitability" anomaly. In our model, investors forecast future profits using a signal and sticky belief dynamics. In this model, past profits forecast future returns (the profitability anomaly). Using analyst forecast data, we measure expectation stickiness at the firm level and find strong support for three additional predictions of the model: (1) analysts are on average too pessimistic regarding the future profits of high profit firms, (2) the profitability anomaly is stronger for stocks which are followed by stickier analysts, and (3) it is also stronger for stocks with more persistent profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Philipp Krueger & Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2016. "Sticky Expectations and Stock Market Anomalies," Working Papers hal-01993418, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01993418
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    Cited by:

    1. Keqi Chen, 2020. "A Closer Look at Analyst Expectations: Stickiness and Confirmation Bias," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15.
    2. Thesmar , David & Bouchaud , Jean-Philippe & Stefano , Ciliberti & Landier , Augustin & Simon , Guillaume, 2016. "The Excess Returns of 'Quality' Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly," HEC Research Papers Series 1134, HEC Paris.
    3. Johannes Maier & Clemens König, 2016. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Belief Updating," CESifo Working Paper Series 6156, CESifo.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market anomalies; Sticky expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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