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About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)

Author

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  • Louis de Mesnard

    (LATEC - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Techniques Economiques [UMR 5118] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis de Mesnard, 2000. "About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)," Working Papers hal-01526521, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01526521
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01526521
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    Keywords

    Biproportion; Change; Demand; Economic theory; Economics; Management; Input-output; Management economics; RAS; Supply; Gestion; Economie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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