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Énergie, politique budgétaire et incertitudes : les vents contraires sur la croissance

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Magali Dauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Afin de comprendre la dynamique de l'économie française, nous évaluons, comme pour chaque exercice de prévision, l'impact des principaux chocs économiques à l'oeuvre. L'idée est d'identifier clairement les effets sur l'activité des différents chocs selon leur nature (budgétaire, monétaire, énergie, incertitude…). Alors que la croissance spontanée du PIB 1 (qui correspond dans le tableau 6.1 à la croissance hors chocs) serait, selon nos évaluations, de 1,6 % pour cette année et 1,5 % pour l'année prochaine, la croissance prévue ne devrait être que de 0,8 % en 2026 et 1 % en 2027, les chocs négatifs l'emportant sur ceux positifs. [Premiers paragraphes]

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Plane & Magali Dauvin, 2026. "Énergie, politique budgétaire et incertitudes : les vents contraires sur la croissance," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05695346, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-05695346
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05695346v1
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