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Consolidation budgétaire optimale dans les modèles macroéconomiques simples

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  • Xavier Ragot

    (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Département d'Economie - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris)

Abstract

Cet article développe un modèle simple de la dynamique de la dette publique reposant sur trois équations. Le modèle permet de caractériser la trajectoire optimale d'une consolidation budgétaire visant à réduire le ratio dette publique sur PIB tout en minimisant les pertes d'activité économique à court terme. Différents critères d'optimalité sont étudiés et comparés. Dans un cadre linéaire standard, une stratégie de consolidation précoce (frontloading) apparaît optimale dans des conditions relativement générales. L'analyse met également en évidence le rôle décisif de l'écart entre le taux d'intérêt et le taux de croissance, ainsi que celui des multiplicateurs budgétaires, dans la détermination de la vitesse optimale d'ajustement des finances publiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Ragot, 2026. "Consolidation budgétaire optimale dans les modèles macroéconomiques simples," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05695244, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-05695244
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05695244v1
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