Applying Combinatorial Inference in GDA. The Case of European Central Bank Governing Council Members (1999–2022)

Based on previous studies by the authors, this contribution proposes an integrated methodology applied to an economic sociological example which is the leading decision-making elites of the European Central Bank (ECB). This methodology responds to the limits of quantitative analysis on small populations such as elite decision-makers focusing on the case of leading monetary policy-makers which be- came the object of a growing literature. The methodological approach explained in this chapter uses prosopography and Geometric Data Analysis (GDA) to explore the particular case of a small but exhaustive data set which summarises biographical characteristics of ECB Governing Council members since its establishment in 1999 (n=85). This data is crossed with position-takings summarised in terms of hawk, dove and intermediary monetary policy orientations to propose statistical interpretations of the determinants of economic decisions. The article details the basic steps of a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). This procedure first involves the construction of a social space on the basis of indicators of various species of capital. We then study a structuring factor of interest (which is, in this case, the individual's monetary orientation or "position-taking" and secondly gender) in the cloud of individuals to assess its descriptive effects. Finally, we apply combinatoral inference to study the atypicality and the compatibility zone around the mean point of a particular sub-group, and the heterogeneity between two groups. In this way, we present a methodological approach to explore the factors determining position-takings within the ECB Governing Council. We argue that this methodological approach is particularly helpful in dealing with very low frequencies and relatively scarce or small data, without leaving aside the multidimensionality and complexity of the object. This chapter hence contributes both to methodological discussions on the study of small groups of elite leaders and to empirical studies on the ECB and more broadly on central banks' policies by providing a sociological statistical analysis of policy-makers' properties that influence policy orientations and outcomes.