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The direct and indirect impact of the war on inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • François Geerolf

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

The paper explores the possible direct and indirect impacts of the Russian war in Ukraine on different measures of inflation in the euro area. It notably shows that the core inflation index is sensitive to energy and food prices, and questions its reliability for policy decisions. Finally, we discuss medium-term inflation prospects and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & François Geerolf, 2023. "The direct and indirect impact of the war on inflation," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05615695, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-05615695
    DOI: 10.2861/13962
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05615695v1
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