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Comment – Public Support to Companies in Times of Crisis: The Value of Microsimulations based on Company Data
[Commentaire. Aider les entreprises en période crise : l’intérêt des microsimulations sur données d’entreprises / Public Support to Companies in Times of Crisis: The Value of Microsimulations based on Company Data]

Author

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  • Xavier Ragot

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The use of company data to simulate the effect of an economic shock or a public policy is a new method of ex ante forecasting and evaluation of public policies. Microsimulations are based on assumptions about the behaviour of firms, which can be discussed. However, as the three articles in this thematic section show, microsimulations allow us to identify the characteristics of firms that best capture their trajectory. During the crisis, the sector of activity proved to be the primary factor. Pre-crisis liquidity and productivity levels of firms then explain the fragility of firms within each sector. These simulations then show that public support has been fairly well targeted, and that the least productive companies have not been particularly helped. The possible overcompensation of sectors needs to be studied. It will be important to compare these simulations with the ex post evaluations, once the company data are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Comment – Public Support to Companies in Times of Crisis: The Value of Microsimulations based on Company Data [Commentaire. Aider les entreprises en période crise : l’intérêt des microsimulations s," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03949708, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03949708
    DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2022.532.2071
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03949708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin Bureau & Anne Duquerroy & Julien Giorgi & Mathias Lé & Suzanne Scott & Frédéric Vinas, 2022. "One Year of COVID: What Impact Did the Pandemic Have on the Economic Activity of French Companies? Construction of Individual Counterfactuals and Diagnoses for 2020," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 532-33, pages 3-23.
    2. Lilas Demmou & Guido Franco & Sara Calligaris & Dennis Dlugosch, 2022. "Liquidity Shortfalls during the COVID 19 Outbreak: Assessment and Policy Responses," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 532-33, pages 47-61.
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