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Is economic forecasting a science?
[Une science de la prévision économique ?]

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  • Olivier Pilmis

    (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Dealing with the scientificity of macroeconomic forecasting, the text highlights some of its properties as a production process. First, macroeconomic forecasting does not rely solely on the use of econometric models, but it is part of a broader division of expert labor. This division involves "epistemic participation", namely the inclusion of "representatives" of the economy itself. This contrasts with the idea of forecasters watching the economy from above. Finally, certain concepts that are at the heart of economic forecasting, such as potential GDP, demonstrate that the descriptions produced by forecasters can never be neutral, but already include political qualifications of economic situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Pilmis, 2022. "Is economic forecasting a science? [Une science de la prévision économique ?]," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03894747, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03894747
    DOI: 10.3917/rce.029.0211
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03894747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Angeletti, 2021. "How economics frames political debates: Macroeconomic forecasting in the French planning commissions," Post-Print halshs-02479954, HAL.
    2. Olivier Pilmis, 2018. "Un futur antérieur. Le rapport aux données dans le travail de prévision macroéconomique," Revue française de socio-Economie, La découverte, vol. 0(2), pages 59-76.
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    1. Olivier Pilmis, 2022. "Is economic forecasting a science? [Une science de la prévision économique ?]," Post-Print hal-03894747, HAL.

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