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La désinflation manquante : un phénomène américain uniquement ?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

Le comportement de l'inflation aux États-Unis lors de la crise économique de 2008-2009, qui n'a pas suivi les prédictions d'une courbe de Phillips classique, a donné lieu au phénomène de « missing disinflation ». Nous évaluons si ce phénomène a également eu lieu en zone euro. Nous utilisons une spécification identique pour estimer des courbes de Phillips au niveau agrégé et dans plusieurs pays. Nous trouvons que l'inflation en zone euro a bien suivi les prédictions d'une courbe de Phillips, dit autrement qu'il n'y a pas eu de phénomène de désinflation manquante, mais qu'il existe de fortes divergences intra-européennes. L'absence de désinflation manquante au niveau agrégé masque en réalité des situations différentes qui se compensent. Les niveaux d'inflation prédits par la courbe de Phillips suggèrent une inflation manquante en Allemagne et en France, et à l'inverse une désinflation manquante en Espagne en Italie et en Grèce.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert & Mathilde Le Moigne, 2018. "La désinflation manquante : un phénomène américain uniquement ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03501739, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03501739
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.160.0047
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03501739
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel, 2022. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03943684, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Courbe de Philipps;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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