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Le syndrome du poisson rouge

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The world economy has continued to recover in 2010. However, GDP per head are still below their pre-crisis levels in all major industrial economies, while unemployment rates have stabilised at high levels. These deflationary patterns are hidden by the strong rise in raw material prices which has initiated a debate on the need for monetary tightening. Simultaneously, fiscal consolidation is being implemented in many industrial countries where fiscal deficits and debts increased during the crisis under the effects of fiscal support and automatic stabilisers. There is a risk that fiscal and monetary tightening implemented under market pressure undermine a still fragile recovery and hence deficit reduction. We expect world GDP will grow by close to 4% this year and next, after 4.8% in 2010, still driven by emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Antonin & Marion Cochard & Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2011. "Le syndrome du poisson rouge," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473797, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03473797
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.117.0009
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03473797
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