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La route vers la déflation ?

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Amel Falah
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The recessive shock is behind us. We expect world GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011. In emerging countries, especially in Asia, activity has recently reached its previous peak or is even higher. The 2010 sovereign debt crisis had a moderate impact on euro area GDP growth. In the US, growth has recently slowed down, but there is no doubt about the Federal Reserve's pragmatism. However, in industrial countries, which are close to or already in a liquidity trap, deflation is the main danger, because of a too rapid and too strong fiscal consolidation. A rise in real interest rates would worsen the recession. Accounting for the size of fiscal multipliers and an already expansionary monetary policy, a global fiscal stimulus would be necessary – at least in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Péléraux & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau & Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni & Christine Ri, 2010. "La route vers la déflation ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473771, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03473771
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.115.0125
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03473771
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Hervé Péléraux & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau & Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni & Christine Ri, 2010. "La route vers la déflation ?," Post-Print hal-03473771, HAL.

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