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Politiques monétaires : attention à la trappe

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Although the economic recovery is underway, central banks have so far maintained interest rates at very low levels and kept unconventional measures unchanged in the US, euro area, and in the UK. The Bank of Japan even cut its base rate down to 0% in October 2010. Output levels remain far below their pre-crisis levels. Unemployment is still high and the deflationary risk remains. Consumer price inflation has started to rise again under the effect of higher oil prices, but core inflation keeps on decelerating. There is a risk for the world economy to fall into a liquidity trap. We expect that central banks will keep their interest rates unchanged until the end of 2011. They may even launch new quantitative easing programmes, in order to sustain economic activity, as it is already the case for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2010. "Politiques monétaires : attention à la trappe," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460199, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460199
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.115.0273
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460199
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