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France : menaces sur la croissance

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Matthieu Lemoine
  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Forecasts on the French economy for 2008 and 2009 are ambivalent. On the one side, the risks we identified 6 months ago (financial crisis, strength of euro and oil prices) did affected French growth in 2007 (+1.9%). This international environment should remain the main constraint in 2008 and 2009. On the other side, business surveys remain optimistic: first, their solid financial situation should allow firms to invest. Second, German competitive disinflation should stop. Moreover, household consumption should remain dynamic, thanks to a slight decrease in the saving rate and the implementation of the tax cuts voted in 2007. All together, French growth should reach 1.9% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009. But this expansionary fiscal policy should draw the public deficit over the Maastricht criteria of 3% of GDP, which could force the government to implement restrictive measures in 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Matthieu Lemoine & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane, 2008. "France : menaces sur la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459806, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459806
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.105.0181
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459806
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