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The axis of growth
[L'axe de la croissance]

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

With a yearly average of 5%, world growth proved exceptional in 2004 and should continue in 2005 and 2006 albeit at a lower pace due to the partial balancing of the disequilibria at work since 2001. The two main engines for growth will remain the United States and China, whereas the Euro zone and Japan will be left off of this axis of growth. Asian central banks should keep financing the US deficit, and hence its growth, because by sustaining the dollar exchange rate against their own currencies, they maintain their price competitiveness and ensure sufficient demand for their own products. Inflation stability is hence necessary for a slight correction of the borrowing and housing excesses. The US deficit should stabilize from early 2005. The Euro area would strongly benefit from such a soft landing.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Guillaume Chevillon & Hélène Baudchon & Gael Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer &, 2005. "The axis of growth [L'axe de la croissance]," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458924, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458924
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.093.0039
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458924v1
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