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House prices: even higher?
[Logement : toujours plus haut ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

  • Valerie Chauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Since 1997, house prices haven risen strongly (+135% in the United Kingdom, + 120% in Spain, + 60% in France and in the United States). Demand has been sustained by a dynamic household income and easy financing (low interest rates and deregulation of the credit market). As of October 2004, the indebtedness of households is very high, except in France. Moreover, house prices seem overvalued by 10 to 20% in Spain and in the United Kingdom, less so in France, whereas they are in line with fundamentals in the United States. We expect a slowdown of demand and an adjustment of supply, that has already begun in some countries. So prices would adjust progressively and then less boost consumption, but it wouldn't stop the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Gael Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plan, 2004. "House prices: even higher? [Logement : toujours plus haut ?]," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458799, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458799
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0179
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458799
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